Last week Patrick Ruffini wrote about benefits of using the web to mobilize grassroots and reach opinion leaders and early adopters. Young Voter Strategies at George Washington University recently released a new study that shows e-campaigns aren't just added bonuses, but crucial to winning tight elections.
Something changed in 2004 and again in 2006. Suddenly, voters aged 18-29 started turning up at the polls. Millenials, those born between 1977 and 1997, cast 4.3 million more votes in 2004 than 2000 with 49% of the age group voting. In 2006, Millenials increased their votes by 2 million from the 2002 mid-term election. If this trend continues, our youngest voters will be the deciding factor in many elections.
The bad news is that Millenials largely favor Democrats. In 2006, 60% of 18-29 year-olds voters cast ballots for Democratic candidates. The picture gets a little more scary when factoring in research that voting is habit forming, and once an individual supports a particular party for three elections, they are likely to form a life-long loyalty to that party. However, not all is bleak for the Republicans.
According to YVS,
Today's young Republicans are very loyal Republicans--but they need to be targeted and turned out. ...young Republicans are more loyal and more intensely Republican than older Republicans. 60% believe the country is headed in the right direction. President Bush has a favorable rating of 76%, and the Republican Party has a favorable rating of 85%.
Young supporters of the Republican Party are out there and excited about being a Republican, but they won't show up on their own. They need to be asked, and the best way to reach them isn't through more paid advertising.
E-campaigns are crucial for reaching these eager, young voters. If asked, not only will they turn up at the polls, but they'll volunteer and work long hours to help out. The key here is reaching out to them on their terms. Millenials are more tech and media savvy than any other generation. Broadcast campaigns won't reach them. If tight races mean turning out every potential vote, campaigns must invest resources in the web.
This requires creating a strategy that goes beyond candidate blogs. Social networking is the hub that Millenials' lives revolve around. A Harvard Institute of Politics study in 2006 found that 97% of all college students logged onto Facebook at least once a month and that population is quickly entering the workforce. According to Facebook numbers, average users log onto the site at least 10-12 times a day.
While Facebook may seem like the silver bullet of the youth vote, it takes personal interaction to reach these voters. The tactics aren't expensive but are labor intensive. The key to recruiting new Republicans is developing one-on-one relationships. Facebook works to recruit, identify and gather these supporters. It's up to the campaigns to invest the manpower to reach them.
YVS sums it up pretty well:
For Republicans, the past two elections should spur them to devote resources to stemming the flow of today's youth to the Democratic Party. Not all young adults vote Democratic, and plenty of those who did in 2006 are not yet wed to the party. In 2008 and beyond, Republicans should develop a strategy to win back many of those young voters and build their party for the future.
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